Research and evaluation

PISA research: score declines and comparability

Lower average scores do not, by themselves, tell us why achievement has declined. This study examines comparisons across the 2018, 2022 and 2025 PISA rounds and the evidence used to explain their differences.

2018 / 2022 / 2025

PISA 2025: interpreting the decline

The analyses draw on common test items and response times, measurement models, socioeconomic and population-composition comparisons, TIMSS pupil panels, and other international and national assessments. They examine whether proposed explanations fit the patterns across countries, subjects and groups of pupils.

The comparisons provide factual counterarguments to simple, single-factor explanations. They do not establish that any proposed factor is irrelevant or estimate how much each caused the decline. Country-level associations, descriptive adjustments and intervention studies answer different questions.

Ten proposed explanations

  1. Social media use
  2. Screen time and school phone restrictions
  3. AI use and the socioeconomic pattern
  4. Curriculum reform
  5. Pandemic disruption and school closures
  6. Migration and changing pupil composition
  7. Rapid responding and test effort
  8. Changes in assessment methods
  9. Attention and reading comprehension
  10. Disengagement and pupil profiles

Milos Kankaras, 2026. Independent analytical brief, 15 pages and ten charts; not a peer-reviewed article or an OECD publication.

Earlier PISA studies

PISA 2022 country notes

Nine secondary analyses of public microdata, including the Montenegro study, published by the Center for Psychology.

Research and evaluation